Computers, Environment and Urban Systems (2019), Volume 77, September 2019, 101146
Présentation (FED) : Automotisation de l’étalonnage d’un modèle intégré d'utilisation des terres et de transport. Après avoir détaillé la méthode mathématique et l'estimation optimale des paramètres endogènes du modèle, les auteurs présentent des résultats de cette méthodologie pour des scénarios réalistes.
Abstract (authors) : Instantiating land use and transport integrated models (LUTI modelling) is a complicated task, requiring substantial data collection, parameter estimation and expert analysis. In this work, we present a partial effort towards the automation of the calibration of Tranus, one of the most popular LUTI models. First, we give a detailed mathematical description of the activity module and the usual calibration approach. Secondly, we reformulate the estimation of the endogenous parameters called shadow prices as an optimisation problem. We also propose an optimisation algorithm for the calibration of the substitution submodel, setting a base for future fully integrated calibration. We analyse the case of transportable and non-transportable economic sectors and propose a detailed mathematical scheme for each case. We also discuss how to validate calibration results and propose to use synthetic data generated from real world problems in order to assess convergence properties and accuracy of calibration methods. Results of this methodology are presented for realistic scenarios. Finally, we propose a model selection scheme to reduce the number of shadow prices that need to be calibrated, with the aim of reducing the risk of overfitting to data.
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